the internet, campaign finance regulation and the first amendment

If Thomas Paine were publishing today, would he be publishing Common Sense and The Crisis as pamphlets or as blogs? If he was publishing on the internet as a blogger, would he run into trouble with the Federal Election Commission?

This post says that the FEC may eventually place restrictions on "political web sites", including blogs. To me, this kind of regulation is clearly unconstitutional--isn't political blogging precisely the kind of public political speech that the first amendment is supposed to protect? Is there any precedent that would support the FEC if it goes forward with applying campaign finance regulations to bloggers?