mad mullahs

The NY Times is reporting that American troops have captured Iranian agents in Baghdad who are responsible for organizing attacks in Iraq:

The American military is holding at least four Iranians in Iraq, including men the Bush administration called senior military officials, who were seized in a pair of raids late last week aimed at people suspected of conducting attacks on Iraqi security forces, according to senior Iraqi and American officials in Baghdad and Washington.

The Bush administration made no public announcement of the politically delicate seizure of the Iranians, though in response to specific questions the White House confirmed Sunday that the Iranians were in custody.

Gordon D. Johndroe, the spokesman for the National Security Council, said two Iranian diplomats were among those initially detained in the raids. The two had papers showing that they were accredited to work in Iraq, and he said they were turned over to the Iraqi authorities and released. He confirmed that a group of other Iranians, including the military officials, remained in custody while an investigation continued, and he said, “We continue to work with the government of Iraq on the status of the detainees.”

If this is true, we now have solid proof that the Iranian government is actively fighting a war against the U.S. and against Iraq. Granted, this news isn't exactly new--we've been hearing about Iranian interference in Iraq for the better part of two years now--but it *is* the kind of smoking-gun evidence that Iran will not be able to deny. Austin Bay sees an opportunity:

But this is also an opportunity. The Times article points out that the Iraqis have been complaining for years about Iranian troublemaking in Iraq. (The Iraqis also complain about Syrian troublemaking.) The UN Security — once again– called for sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program. As weak as UN sanctions are, they still represent a strategic political problem from Iran. Ahmadinejad’s government was rattled by recent local elections in Iran. Iranian students and other domestic opponents are restive. And now the US has “tactical” evidence of direct Iranian support for attacks on Iraqi forces inside Iraq.

The possibility exists that the Iraqis could play good cop-bad cop with the Iranians. Here’s the Iraqi diplomatic pitch: “You’ve been caught red-handed. Better to deal with us in Baghdad than with the big bad US and its Air Force.”

What might a deal look like? Hard to say, but it should entail Iran giving up its support for Shia militias.

I'd like to believe that the Iranian regime can be convinced to retreat from Iraq, but I'm not so certain. The Iranian government is a puppet of Iran's mullahs whom aren't necessarily students of realist foreign policy. They came into power when their radical followers stormed the American embassy in 1979, but Iran never paid a price for the crime. Iranian supported Hezbollah is probably responsible for the Marine barracks bombing in 1983, but Iran never paid a price for the crime. Iran is probably responsible for the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing, but they never paid a price for the crime. Iran has been supporting Shia insurgents in Iraq since 2004, but they've never paid a price. Iranian supported Hezbollah was again responsible for initiating war with Israel in 2006, but Iran never paid a price. After decades of belligerent behavior that have gone unpunished, Iran's mullahs might be feeling untouchable. It may take more than sabre-rattling to convince them to back down.